diff --git a/oak-search-elastic/src/main/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/ElasticIndexProviderService.java b/oak-search-elastic/src/main/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/ElasticIndexProviderService.java
index fbc3fc794f0..89e64b2693e 100644
--- a/oak-search-elastic/src/main/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/ElasticIndexProviderService.java
+++ b/oak-search-elastic/src/main/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/ElasticIndexProviderService.java
@@ -25,6 +25,7 @@
 import org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.plugins.index.elastic.index.ElasticIndexEditorProvider;
 import org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.plugins.index.elastic.index.ElasticRetryPolicy;
 import org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.plugins.index.elastic.query.ElasticIndexProvider;
+import org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.plugins.index.elastic.ElasticIndexStatistics;
 import org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.plugins.index.elastic.query.inference.InferenceConfig;
 import org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.plugins.index.elastic.query.inference.InferenceConstants;
 import org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.plugins.index.elastic.query.inference.InferenceMBeanImpl;
@@ -227,6 +228,9 @@ private void activate(BundleContext bundleContext, Config config) {
         oakRegs.add(whiteboard.register(FeatureToggle.class,
                 new FeatureToggle(ElasticConnection.FT_OAK_12234, ElasticConnection.FT_OAK_12234_DISABLE),
                 emptyMap()));
+        oakRegs.add(whiteboard.register(FeatureToggle.class,
+                new FeatureToggle(ElasticIndexStatistics.FT_OAK_12248, ElasticIndexStatistics.FT_OAK_12248_ENABLE),
+                emptyMap()));
         if (System.getProperty(QueryEngineSettings.OAK_INFERENCE_ENABLED) != null) {
             this.isInferenceEnabled = Boolean.parseBoolean(System.getProperty(QueryEngineSettings.OAK_INFERENCE_ENABLED));
         } else {
diff --git a/oak-search-elastic/src/main/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/ElasticIndexStatistics.java b/oak-search-elastic/src/main/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/ElasticIndexStatistics.java
index bdeab1c898e..387b840277a 100644
--- a/oak-search-elastic/src/main/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/ElasticIndexStatistics.java
+++ b/oak-search-elastic/src/main/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/ElasticIndexStatistics.java
@@ -22,7 +22,9 @@
 import java.util.List;
 import java.util.Objects;
 import java.util.concurrent.TimeUnit;
+import java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicBoolean;
 
+import co.elastic.clients.elasticsearch._types.ElasticsearchException;
 import co.elastic.clients.elasticsearch._types.query_dsl.Query;
 
 import org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.cache.api.CacheBuilder;
@@ -33,6 +35,8 @@
 import org.jetbrains.annotations.NotNull;
 import org.jetbrains.annotations.Nullable;
 import org.jetbrains.annotations.TestOnly;
+import org.slf4j.Logger;
+import org.slf4j.LoggerFactory;
 
 import co.elastic.clients.elasticsearch._types.Bytes;
 import co.elastic.clients.elasticsearch.cat.indices.IndicesRecord;
@@ -53,6 +57,17 @@
  */
 public class ElasticIndexStatistics implements IndexStatistics {
 
+    private static final Logger LOG = LoggerFactory.getLogger(ElasticIndexStatistics.class);
+
+    public static final String FT_OAK_12248 = "FT_OAK-12248";
+    /**
+     * When {@code true}, a 404 from Elasticsearch (alias not found) is treated as an expected
+     * empty-index condition: statistics return 0, the query returns an empty cursor, and INFO is
+     * logged instead of ERROR. Requires OAK-12249 lazy provisioning to be meaningful.
+     * Disabled by default.
+     */
+    public static final AtomicBoolean FT_OAK_12248_ENABLE = new AtomicBoolean(false);
+
     private static final String MAX_SIZE = "oak.elastic.statsMaxSize";
     private static final Long MAX_SIZE_DEFAULT = 10000L;
     private static final String EXPIRE_SECONDS = "oak.elastic.statsExpireSeconds";
@@ -64,7 +79,6 @@ public class ElasticIndexStatistics implements IndexStatistics {
     private final ElasticIndexDefinition indexDefinition;
     private final LoadingCache<StatsRequestDescriptor, Integer> countCache;
     private final LoadingCache<StatsRequestDescriptor, StatsResponse> statsCache;
-
     ElasticIndexStatistics(@NotNull ElasticConnection elasticConnection,
                            @NotNull ElasticIndexDefinition indexDefinition) {
         this(elasticConnection, indexDefinition, null, null);
@@ -89,7 +103,7 @@ public class ElasticIndexStatistics implements IndexStatistics {
      */
     @Override
     public int numDocs() {
-        return countCache.get(new StatsRequestDescriptor(elasticConnection, indexDefinition.getIndexAlias()));
+        return getOrRefetchDocCount(null, null);
     }
 
     /**
@@ -98,10 +112,7 @@ public int numDocs() {
      */
     @Override
     public int getDocCountFor(String field) {
-        String elasticField = ElasticIndexUtils.fieldName(field);
-        return countCache.get(
-                new StatsRequestDescriptor(elasticConnection, indexDefinition.getIndexAlias(), elasticField, null)
-        );
+        return getOrRefetchDocCount(ElasticIndexUtils.fieldName(field), null);
     }
 
     /**
@@ -109,9 +120,11 @@ public int getDocCountFor(String field) {
      * {@code ElasticIndexDefinition}.
      */
     public int getDocCountFor(Query query) {
-        return countCache.get(
-                new StatsRequestDescriptor(elasticConnection, indexDefinition.getIndexAlias(), null, query)
-        );
+        return getOrRefetchDocCount(null, query);
+    }
+
+    private int getOrRefetchDocCount(@Nullable String field, @Nullable Query query) {
+        return countCache.get(new StatsRequestDescriptor(elasticConnection, indexDefinition.getIndexAlias(), field, query));
     }
 
     /**
@@ -119,9 +132,7 @@ public int getDocCountFor(Query query) {
      * {@code ElasticIndexDefinition}.
      */
     public long primaryStoreSize() {
-        return statsCache.get(
-                new StatsRequestDescriptor(elasticConnection, indexDefinition.getIndexAlias())
-        ).primaryStoreSize;
+        return getOrRefetchStats().primaryStoreSize;
     }
 
     /**
@@ -129,18 +140,14 @@ public long primaryStoreSize() {
      * primary shards and replica shards.
      */
     public long storeSize() {
-        return statsCache.get(
-                new StatsRequestDescriptor(elasticConnection, indexDefinition.getIndexAlias())
-        ).storeSize;
+        return getOrRefetchStats().storeSize;
     }
 
     /**
      * Returns the creation date for the remote index bound to the {@code ElasticIndexDefinition}.
      */
     public long creationDate() {
-        return statsCache.get(
-                new StatsRequestDescriptor(elasticConnection, indexDefinition.getIndexAlias())
-        ).creationDate;
+        return getOrRefetchStats().creationDate;
     }
 
     /**
@@ -148,9 +155,7 @@ public long creationDate() {
      * {@code ElasticIndexDefinition}. This document count includes hidden nested documents.
      */
     public int luceneNumDocs() {
-        return statsCache.get(
-                new StatsRequestDescriptor(elasticConnection, indexDefinition.getIndexAlias())
-        ).luceneDocsCount;
+        return getOrRefetchStats().luceneDocsCount;
     }
 
     /**
@@ -158,9 +163,11 @@ public int luceneNumDocs() {
      * {@code ElasticIndexDefinition}. This document count includes hidden nested documents.
      */
     public int luceneNumDeletedDocs() {
-        return statsCache.get(
-                new StatsRequestDescriptor(elasticConnection, indexDefinition.getIndexAlias())
-        ).luceneDocsDeleted;
+        return getOrRefetchStats().luceneDocsDeleted;
+    }
+
+    private StatsResponse getOrRefetchStats() {
+        return statsCache.get(new StatsRequestDescriptor(elasticConnection, indexDefinition.getIndexAlias()));
     }
 
     static LoadingCache<StatsRequestDescriptor, Integer> setupCountCache(long maxSize, long expireSeconds, long refreshSeconds, @Nullable Clock clock) {
@@ -195,7 +202,15 @@ static class CountCacheLoader implements CacheLoader<StatsRequestDescriptor, Int
 
         @Override
         public @NotNull Integer load(@NotNull StatsRequestDescriptor countRequestDescriptor) throws IOException {
-            return count(countRequestDescriptor);
+            try {
+                return count(countRequestDescriptor);
+            } catch (ElasticsearchException ee) {
+                if (ee.status() == 404 && FT_OAK_12248_ENABLE.get()) {
+                    LOG.info("ES alias not found for index {} — treating as empty (OAK-12248)", countRequestDescriptor.index);
+                    return 0;
+                }
+                throw ee;
+            }
         }
 
         private int count(StatsRequestDescriptor crd) throws IOException {
@@ -216,7 +231,15 @@ static class StatsCacheLoader implements CacheLoader<StatsRequestDescriptor, Sta
 
         @Override
         public @NotNull StatsResponse load(@NotNull StatsRequestDescriptor countRequestDescriptor) throws IOException {
-            return stats(countRequestDescriptor);
+            try {
+                return stats(countRequestDescriptor);
+            } catch (ElasticsearchException ee) {
+                if (ee.status() == 404 && FT_OAK_12248_ENABLE.get()) {
+                    LOG.info("ES alias not found for index {} — returning empty stats (OAK-12248)", countRequestDescriptor.index);
+                    return StatsResponse.NO_ALIAS_STATS;
+                }
+                throw ee;
+            }
         }
 
         private StatsResponse stats(StatsRequestDescriptor crd) throws IOException {
@@ -292,6 +315,8 @@ private String internalQuery() {
 
     static class StatsResponse {
 
+        static final StatsResponse NO_ALIAS_STATS = new StatsResponse(0, 0, -1, 0, 0);
+
         final long storeSize;
         final long primaryStoreSize;
         final long creationDate;
diff --git a/oak-search-elastic/src/main/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/query/ElasticIndex.java b/oak-search-elastic/src/main/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/query/ElasticIndex.java
index 96f7155a050..4ae53d82000 100644
--- a/oak-search-elastic/src/main/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/query/ElasticIndex.java
+++ b/oak-search-elastic/src/main/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/query/ElasticIndex.java
@@ -21,6 +21,7 @@
 
 import org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.commons.PathUtils;
 import org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.plugins.index.elastic.ElasticIndexNode;
+import org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.plugins.index.elastic.ElasticIndexStatistics;
 import org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.plugins.index.elastic.ElasticIndexTracker;
 import org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.plugins.index.elastic.query.async.ElasticResultRowAsyncIterator;
 import org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.plugins.index.search.IndexNode;
@@ -33,6 +34,7 @@
 import org.jetbrains.annotations.NotNull;
 
 import java.util.List;
+import java.util.NoSuchElementException;
 import java.util.function.BiFunction;
 import java.util.function.Predicate;
 
@@ -120,6 +122,14 @@ public Cursor query(IndexPlan plan, NodeState rootState) {
         ElasticQueryIterator itr;
         ElasticIndexNode indexNode = acquireIndexNode(plan);
         try {
+            if (ElasticIndexStatistics.FT_OAK_12248_ENABLE.get() && indexNode.getIndexStatistics().numDocs() == 0) {
+                final String explainQuery = requestHandler.baseQuery().toString();
+                return new ElasticQueryIterator() {
+                    @Override public boolean hasNext() { return false; }
+                    @Override public FulltextResultRow next() { throw new NoSuchElementException(); }
+                    @Override public String explain() { return explainQuery; }
+                };
+            }
             if (requestHandler.requiresSpellCheck()) {
                 itr = new ElasticSpellcheckIterator(indexNode, requestHandler, responseHandler);
             } else if (requestHandler.requiresSuggestion()) {
diff --git a/oak-search-elastic/src/test/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/ElasticGraceful404QueryTest.java b/oak-search-elastic/src/test/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/ElasticGraceful404QueryTest.java
new file mode 100644
index 00000000000..77c009adc21
--- /dev/null
+++ b/oak-search-elastic/src/test/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/ElasticGraceful404QueryTest.java
@@ -0,0 +1,87 @@
+/*
+ * Licensed to the Apache Software Foundation (ASF) under one or more
+ * contributor license agreements.  See the NOTICE file distributed with
+ * this work for additional information regarding copyright ownership.
+ * The ASF licenses this file to You under the Apache License, Version 2.0
+ * (the "License"); you may not use this file except in compliance with
+ * the License.  You may obtain a copy of the License at
+ *
+ *     http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
+ *
+ * Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
+ * distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
+ * WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
+ * See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
+ * limitations under the License.
+ */
+package org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.plugins.index.elastic;
+
+import org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.api.Tree;
+import org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.plugins.index.search.util.IndexDefinitionBuilder;
+import org.junit.After;
+import org.junit.Test;
+
+import java.util.List;
+
+import static org.junit.Assert.assertEquals;
+import static org.junit.Assert.assertTrue;
+
+/**
+ * Tests for OAK-12248: graceful handling of ES 404 (alias not found) during query.
+ */
+public class ElasticGraceful404QueryTest extends ElasticAbstractQueryTest {
+
+    private static final String QUERY = "SELECT * FROM [nt:base] WHERE [ghost] IS NOT NULL OPTION(TRAVERSAL FAIL)";
+
+    @After
+    public void resetToggle() {
+        ElasticIndexStatistics.FT_OAK_12248_ENABLE.set(false);
+    }
+
+    private Tree provisionIndex() throws Exception {
+        Tree test = root.getTree("/").addChild("test");
+        test.addChild("a").setProperty("ghost", "value");
+        test.addChild("b").setProperty("ghost", "value");
+        root.commit();
+
+        IndexDefinitionBuilder builder = createIndex("ghost");
+        builder.indexRule("nt:base").property("ghost").propertyIndex();
+        Tree index = setIndex("ghostIndex", builder);
+        root.commit();
+
+        assertEventually(() -> {
+            assertTrue(exists(index));
+            assertEquals(2, countDocuments(index));
+        });
+        return index;
+    }
+
+    private void deleteAlias(Tree index) throws Exception {
+        esConnection.getClient().indices().delete(i -> i
+                .index(getElasticIndexDefinition(index).getIndexAlias() + "*"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    public void queryOnMissingAlias_withToggleOff_failsWithTraversalError() throws Exception {
+        Tree index = provisionIndex();
+        deleteAlias(index);
+
+        List<String> results = executeQuery(QUERY, SQL2);
+
+        assertEquals(1, results.size());
+        assertTrue("Expected traversal-fail error when toggle is off and alias is missing",
+                results.get(0).contains("Traversal"));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    public void queryOnMissingAlias_withToggleOn_returnsEmpty() throws Exception {
+        Tree index = provisionIndex();
+        deleteAlias(index);
+        ElasticIndexStatistics.FT_OAK_12248_ENABLE.set(true);
+
+        List<String> results = executeQuery(QUERY, SQL2);
+
+        assertEquals("Expected empty result set when alias is missing and toggle is on",
+                0, results.size());
+    }
+}
diff --git a/oak-search-elastic/src/test/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/ElasticIndexStatisticsTest.java b/oak-search-elastic/src/test/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/ElasticIndexStatisticsTest.java
index 89491e72f65..d65f835dc9a 100644
--- a/oak-search-elastic/src/test/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/ElasticIndexStatisticsTest.java
+++ b/oak-search-elastic/src/test/java/org/apache/jackrabbit/oak/plugins/index/elastic/ElasticIndexStatisticsTest.java
@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@
 package org.apache.jackrabbit.oak.plugins.index.elastic;
 
 import co.elastic.clients.elasticsearch.ElasticsearchClient;
+import co.elastic.clients.elasticsearch._types.ElasticsearchException;
 import co.elastic.clients.elasticsearch._types.query_dsl.Query;
 import co.elastic.clients.elasticsearch.core.CountRequest;
 import co.elastic.clients.elasticsearch.core.CountResponse;
@@ -66,6 +67,7 @@ public void setUp() {
     @After
     public void releaseMocks() throws Exception {
         closeable.close();
+        ElasticIndexStatistics.FT_OAK_12248_ENABLE.set(false);
     }
 
     @Test
@@ -142,4 +144,45 @@ public void cachedStatistics() throws Exception {
         assertEquals(5000, indexStatistics.getDocCountFor(Query.of(qf -> qf.matchAll(mf -> mf.boost(100F)))));
         verify(elasticClientMock, times(5)).count(any(CountRequest.class));
     }
+
+    @Test
+    public void numDocsReturnsZeroOn404WithToggleEnabled() throws Exception {
+        ElasticIndexStatistics.FT_OAK_12248_ENABLE.set(true);
+        LoadingCache<ElasticIndexStatistics.StatsRequestDescriptor, Integer> cache =
+                ElasticIndexStatistics.setupCountCache(100, 10 * 60, 60, null);
+        ElasticIndexStatistics stats =
+                new ElasticIndexStatistics(elasticConnectionMock, indexDefinitionMock, cache, null);
+
+        ElasticsearchException notFound = mock(ElasticsearchException.class);
+        when(notFound.status()).thenReturn(404);
+        when(elasticClientMock.count(any(CountRequest.class))).thenThrow(notFound);
+
+        assertEquals(0, stats.numDocs());
+        verify(elasticClientMock).count(any(CountRequest.class));
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    public void numDocsRecoverAfterCacheExpiry() throws Exception {
+        ElasticIndexStatistics.FT_OAK_12248_ENABLE.set(true);
+        Clock.Virtual clock = new Clock.Virtual();
+        LoadingCache<ElasticIndexStatistics.StatsRequestDescriptor, Integer> cache =
+                ElasticIndexStatistics.setupCountCache(100, 10 * 60, 60, clock);
+        ElasticIndexStatistics stats =
+                new ElasticIndexStatistics(elasticConnectionMock, indexDefinitionMock, cache, null);
+
+        ElasticsearchException notFound = mock(ElasticsearchException.class);
+        when(notFound.status()).thenReturn(404);
+        CountResponse countResponse = mock(CountResponse.class);
+        when(countResponse.count()).thenReturn(5L);
+        when(elasticClientMock.count(any(CountRequest.class)))
+                .thenThrow(notFound)
+                .thenReturn(countResponse);
+
+        assertEquals(0, stats.numDocs());
+
+        clock.waitFor(Duration.ofMinutes(11));
+
+        assertEquals(5, stats.numDocs());
+        verify(elasticClientMock, times(2)).count(any(CountRequest.class));
+    }
 }